Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Tue, Jul 28

Season: 628-697 (47.4%) · ROI: -2.5%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
Milwaukee Brewers away
vs San Francisco Giants · 7:45 PM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+9.7%
+8.8% consensus
Odds
-118
Book
Stake
$52.87
Arizona Diamondbacks away
vs Pittsburgh Pirates · 4:35 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+7.2%
Odds
+117
Book
Stake
$33.46
Colorado Rockies away
vs San Diego Padres · 1:40 AM
Prob
39.1%
Edge
+6.8%
+5.6% consensus
Odds
+210
Book
Stake
$25.10
Baltimore Orioles away
vs Detroit Tigers · 5:10 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+6.4%
+4.7% consensus
Odds
+155
Book
Stake
$26.42
Washington Nationals home
vs Toronto Blue Jays · 5:05 PM
Prob
54.4%
Edge
+5.6%
+5.1% consensus
Odds
+105
Book
Stake
$27.23
San Francisco Giants home
vs Milwaukee Brewers · 1:45 AM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+5.0%
+3.1% consensus
Odds
+140
Book
Stake
$21.57
Boston Red Sox away
vs Athletics · 1:40 AM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+4.6%
+3.8% consensus
Odds
-145
Book
Stake
$28.46
Athletics home
vs Boston Red Sox · 1:40 AM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+4.1%
+2.9% consensus
Odds
+135
Book
Stake
$18.05
Chicago White Sox home
vs New York Yankees · 11:40 PM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+3.6%
+2.0% consensus
Odds
+132
Book
Stake
$15.80
San Diego Padres home
vs Colorado Rockies · 8:10 PM
Prob
60.9%
Edge
+3.3%
+2.2% consensus
Odds
-136
Book
Stake
$19.55
Chicago Cubs away
vs St. Louis Cardinals · 11:45 PM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+2.1%
+1.3% consensus
Odds
-115
Book
Stake
$11.13
Updated 2:55 AM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice