Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Tue, Jul 21

Season: 584-659 (47.0%) · ROI: -3.3%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
Boston Red Sox home
vs Baltimore Orioles · 11:10 PM
Prob
60.9%
Edge
+10.0%
+8.3% consensus
Odds
-104
Book
Stake
$50.79
Athletics away
vs Arizona Diamondbacks · 1:40 AM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+7.2%
Odds
+117
Book
Stake
$33.46
Los Angeles Dodgers away
vs Philadelphia Phillies · 10:40 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+5.7%
+4.3% consensus
Odds
+110
Book
Stake
$27.11
St. Louis Cardinals away
vs Los Angeles Angels · 1:38 AM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+5.6%
+5.1% consensus
Odds
+100
Book
Stake
$27.80
Washington Nationals away
vs Colorado Rockies · 12:40 AM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+3.9%
+3.2% consensus
Odds
-107
Book
Stake
$20.02
Tampa Bay Rays away
vs Toronto Blue Jays · 11:07 PM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+3.6%
Odds
-108
Book
Stake
$18.91
Kansas City Royals home
vs San Francisco Giants · 11:40 PM
Prob
54.4%
Edge
+3.4%
Odds
-104
Book
Stake
$17.24
Minnesota Twins away
vs Cleveland Guardians · 10:40 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+2.2%
+1.2% consensus
Odds
+130
Book
Stake
$9.56
Updated 6:20 PM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice