Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Sat, Jul 4

Season: 509-585 (46.5%) · ROI: -3.4%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
San Diego Padres away
vs Los Angeles Dodgers · 11:20 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+10.1%
Odds
+181
Book
Stake
$39.02
Milwaukee Brewers away
vs Arizona Diamondbacks · 8:10 PM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+9.3%
+8.7% consensus
Odds
-120
Book
Stake
$51.06
Toronto Blue Jays away
vs Seattle Mariners · 9:00 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+7.4%
Odds
+118
Book
Stake
$34.31
Los Angeles Angels home
vs Boston Red Sox · 1:38 AM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+7.0%
+6.5% consensus
Odds
+152
Book
Stake
$29.09
Miami Marlins away
vs Athletics · 8:30 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+5.7%
+4.2% consensus
Odds
+110
Book
Stake
$27.11
Arizona Diamondbacks home
vs Milwaukee Brewers · 1:40 AM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+5.0%
+4.4% consensus
Odds
+140
Book
Stake
$21.57
St. Louis Cardinals away
vs Chicago Cubs · 12:08 AM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+3.8%
Odds
+139
Book
Stake
$16.33
Chicago White Sox away
vs Cleveland Guardians · 6:00 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+3.6%
+2.1% consensus
Odds
+138
Book
Stake
$15.62
Kansas City Royals home
vs Philadelphia Phillies · 12:10 AM
Prob
44.4%
Edge
+2.8%
+1.7% consensus
Odds
+140
Book
Stake
$11.89
St. Louis Cardinals away
vs Chicago Cubs · 6:30 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+2.2%
+1.5% consensus
Odds
+130
Book
Stake
$9.56
Los Angeles Angels home
vs Boston Red Sox · 1:30 AM
Prob
44.4%
Edge
+2.1%
+1.3% consensus
Odds
+136
Book
Stake
$8.97
Updated 2:35 AM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice