Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Sun, Apr 12

Season: 65-77 (45.8%) · ROI: +4.9%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
Miami Marlins away
vs Detroit Tigers · 5:40 PM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+26.0%
+24.6% consensus
Odds
+165
Book
Stake
$104.57
Houston Astros away
vs Seattle Mariners · 8:10 PM
Prob
60.9%
Edge
+19.2%
+18.7% consensus
Odds
+140
Book
Stake
$82.30
Arizona Diamondbacks away
vs Philadelphia Phillies · 5:35 PM
Prob
61.4%
Edge
+18.9%
+17.3% consensus
Odds
+135
Book
Stake
$82.11
Athletics away
vs New York Mets · 5:40 PM
Prob
56.5%
Edge
+15.7%
+15.1% consensus
Odds
+145
Book
Stake
$66.17
Texas Rangers away
vs Los Angeles Dodgers · 8:10 PM
Prob
62.1%
Edge
+14.9%
Odds
+112
Book
Stake
$70.70
New York Yankees away
vs Tampa Bay Rays · 5:40 PM
Prob
72.5%
Edge
+13.7%
+12.7% consensus
Odds
-143
Book
Stake
$83.24
St. Louis Cardinals home
vs Boston Red Sox · 6:15 PM
Prob
60.9%
Edge
+13.3%
+12.4% consensus
Odds
+110
Book
Stake
$63.53
Cleveland Guardians away
vs Atlanta Braves · 11:20 PM
Prob
50.0%
Edge
+12.3%
+11.7% consensus
Odds
+165
Book
Stake
$49.28
Washington Nationals away
vs Milwaukee Brewers · 6:10 PM
Prob
45.7%
Edge
+11.1%
+10.6% consensus
Odds
+189
Book
Stake
$42.31
Colorado Rockies away
vs San Diego Padres · 8:10 PM
Prob
42.4%
Edge
+9.7%
+8.5% consensus
Odds
+205
Book
Stake
$35.90
Updated 3:25 PM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice