Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Wed, Jul 22

Season: 587-667 (46.8%) · ROI: -3.8%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
Milwaukee Brewers home
vs New York Mets · 6:10 PM
Prob
66.7%
Edge
+8.7%
+7.7% consensus
Odds
-138
Book
Stake
$51.69
Washington Nationals away
vs Colorado Rockies · 7:10 PM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+6.9%
+6.4% consensus
Odds
-132
Book
Stake
$40.21
St. Louis Cardinals away
vs Los Angeles Angels · 8:07 PM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+6.8%
+5.9% consensus
Odds
+105
Book
Stake
$33.09
Miami Marlins away
vs Houston Astros · 12:10 AM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+6.8%
+5.8% consensus
Odds
+105
Book
Stake
$33.09
Kansas City Royals home
vs San Francisco Giants · 6:10 PM
Prob
54.4%
Edge
+4.6%
Odds
+101
Book
Stake
$22.93
San Diego Padres away
vs Atlanta Braves · 11:15 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+3.5%
Odds
+101
Book
Stake
$17.66
Cincinnati Reds away
vs Seattle Mariners · 7:40 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+3.1%
+2.1% consensus
Odds
+135
Book
Stake
$13.43
Los Angeles Dodgers away
vs Philadelphia Phillies · 10:40 PM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+2.7%
+1.2% consensus
Odds
-112
Book
Stake
$14.47
Tampa Bay Rays away
vs Toronto Blue Jays · 11:07 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+2.3%
Odds
-104
Book
Stake
$11.83
Texas Rangers home
vs Chicago White Sox · 12:05 AM
Prob
54.4%
Edge
+1.5%
+2.1% consensus
Odds
-112
Book
Stake
$8.11
Updated 10:00 AM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice