Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Sat, Jul 4

Season: 508-582 (46.6%) · ROI: -3.1%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
Texas Rangers home
vs Detroit Tigers · 8:05 PM
Prob
54.4%
Edge
+5.8%
+4.1% consensus
Odds
+106
Book
Stake
$28.26
Washington Nationals home
vs Pittsburgh Pirates · 3:05 PM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+5.5%
+4.7% consensus
Odds
+143
Book
Stake
$23.57
Minnesota Twins away
vs New York Yankees · 5:35 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+3.6%
Odds
+138
Book
Stake
$15.62
St. Louis Cardinals away
vs Chicago Cubs · 12:08 AM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+3.1%
+2.6% consensus
Odds
+135
Book
Stake
$13.43
Toronto Blue Jays away
vs Seattle Mariners · 8:10 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+2.9%
Odds
+134
Book
Stake
$12.68
Boston Red Sox away
vs Los Angeles Angels · 1:38 AM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+2.4%
+1.6% consensus
Odds
-159
Book
Stake
$15.80
Arizona Diamondbacks home
vs Milwaukee Brewers · 1:40 AM
Prob
44.4%
Edge
+0.6%
Odds
+128
Book
Stake
$2.58
Updated 1:05 PM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice