Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Tue, Jul 28

Season: 625-695 (47.4%) · ROI: -2.6%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
Philadelphia Phillies away
vs Miami Marlins · 10:40 PM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+9.3%
Odds
+116
Book
Stake
$43.12
Arizona Diamondbacks away
vs Pittsburgh Pirates · 4:35 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+7.4%
+6.8% consensus
Odds
+118
Book
Stake
$34.31
Kansas City Royals away
vs Minnesota Twins · 11:40 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+6.9%
+6.2% consensus
Odds
+158
Book
Stake
$28.09
Baltimore Orioles away
vs Detroit Tigers · 5:10 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+6.4%
+4.2% consensus
Odds
+155
Book
Stake
$26.42
Colorado Rockies away
vs San Diego Padres · 1:40 AM
Prob
39.1%
Edge
+6.3%
+5.1% consensus
Odds
+205
Book
Stake
$23.33
Washington Nationals home
vs Toronto Blue Jays · 5:05 PM
Prob
54.4%
Edge
+6.3%
+5.1% consensus
Odds
+108
Book
Stake
$30.25
Texas Rangers away
vs Tampa Bay Rays · 10:40 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+5.6%
Odds
+150
Book
Stake
$23.50
Boston Red Sox away
vs Athletics · 1:40 AM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+5.2%
+4.0% consensus
Odds
-142
Book
Stake
$31.17
Athletics home
vs Boston Red Sox · 1:40 AM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+4.1%
+2.9% consensus
Odds
+135
Book
Stake
$18.05
San Francisco Giants home
vs Milwaukee Brewers · 1:45 AM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+4.1%
+2.9% consensus
Odds
+135
Book
Stake
$18.05
Arizona Diamondbacks away
vs Pittsburgh Pirates · 10:40 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+3.3%
+2.1% consensus
Odds
+100
Book
Stake
$16.50
San Diego Padres home
vs Colorado Rockies · 8:10 PM
Prob
60.9%
Edge
+3.3%
+2.1% consensus
Odds
-136
Book
Stake
$19.55
Chicago White Sox home
vs New York Yankees · 11:40 PM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+2.5%
+1.7% consensus
Odds
+126
Book
Stake
$11.00
Chicago Cubs away
vs St. Louis Cardinals · 11:45 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+1.4%
Odds
-108
Book
Stake
$7.16
Updated 12:15 AM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice