Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Sat, Jun 27

Season: 466-536 (46.5%) · ROI: -3.3%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
San Diego Padres home
vs Los Angeles Dodgers · 12:40 AM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+11.0%
+9.7% consensus
Odds
+180
Book
Stake
$42.72
Texas Rangers away
vs Toronto Blue Jays · 7:07 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+7.8%
+6.9% consensus
Odds
+164
Book
Stake
$31.23
Miami Marlins away
vs St. Louis Cardinals · 11:15 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+7.4%
Odds
+118
Book
Stake
$34.31
Houston Astros away
vs Detroit Tigers · 5:10 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+6.8%
Odds
+115
Book
Stake
$31.73
Pittsburgh Pirates home
vs Cincinnati Reds · 8:05 PM
Prob
54.4%
Edge
+5.8%
+4.6% consensus
Odds
+106
Book
Stake
$28.26
Philadelphia Phillies away
vs New York Mets · 8:10 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+5.5%
Odds
+109
Book
Stake
$26.14
Minnesota Twins home
vs Colorado Rockies · 11:10 PM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+5.4%
Odds
-140
Book
Stake
$32.68
Washington Nationals away
vs Baltimore Orioles · 11:05 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+4.5%
+3.7% consensus
Odds
+105
Book
Stake
$22.06
Athletics away
vs Los Angeles Angels · 1:38 AM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+4.3%
+3.8% consensus
Odds
-105
Book
Stake
$22.24
Cleveland Guardians home
vs Seattle Mariners · 11:10 PM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+2.8%
+2.2% consensus
Odds
+128
Book
Stake
$12.65
Arizona Diamondbacks away
vs Tampa Bay Rays · 10:10 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+2.2%
Odds
+130
Book
Stake
$9.56
New York Yankees away
vs Boston Red Sox · 5:10 PM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+1.0%
Odds
-120
Book
Stake
$5.58
Updated 2:10 PM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice