Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Fri, Jul 3

Season: 502-577 (46.5%) · ROI: -3.3%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
Pittsburgh Pirates away
vs Washington Nationals · 10:45 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+8.7%
+7.4% consensus
Odds
+124
Book
Stake
$39.10
Miami Marlins away
vs Athletics · 1:40 AM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+7.8%
Odds
+120
Book
Stake
$35.96
Cincinnati Reds home
vs Baltimore Orioles · 11:10 PM
Prob
54.4%
Edge
+6.7%
+5.6% consensus
Odds
+110
Book
Stake
$32.17
Milwaukee Brewers away
vs Arizona Diamondbacks · 1:45 AM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+5.5%
+4.9% consensus
Odds
-140
Book
Stake
$32.98
Milwaukee Brewers away
vs Arizona Diamondbacks · 1:40 AM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+5.2%
+3.9% consensus
Odds
-142
Book
Stake
$31.17
Minnesota Twins away
vs New York Yankees · 5:35 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+3.8%
Odds
+139
Book
Stake
$16.33
Tampa Bay Rays away
vs Houston Astros · 11:10 PM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+3.6%
Odds
-108
Book
Stake
$18.91
St. Louis Cardinals away
vs Chicago Cubs · 12:08 AM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+3.3%
+2.5% consensus
Odds
+136
Book
Stake
$14.17
Boston Red Sox away
vs Los Angeles Angels · 1:38 AM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+2.3%
Odds
-104
Book
Stake
$11.83
Los Angeles Angels home
vs Boston Red Sox · 1:38 AM
Prob
44.4%
Edge
+1.9%
Odds
+135
Book
Stake
$8.21
Tampa Bay Rays away
vs Houston Astros · 12:15 AM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+1.6%
Odds
-107
Book
Stake
$8.33
Updated 11:00 PM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice