Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Fri, Jul 3

Season: 502-577 (46.5%) · ROI: -3.3%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
Pittsburgh Pirates away
vs Washington Nationals · 10:45 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+8.7%
+7.4% consensus
Odds
+124
Book
Stake
$39.10
Miami Marlins away
vs Athletics · 1:40 AM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+8.5%
+7.8% consensus
Odds
+123
Book
Stake
$38.33
Cincinnati Reds home
vs Baltimore Orioles · 11:10 PM
Prob
54.4%
Edge
+6.7%
+5.6% consensus
Odds
+110
Book
Stake
$32.17
Milwaukee Brewers away
vs Arizona Diamondbacks · 1:40 AM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+5.5%
+4.4% consensus
Odds
-140
Book
Stake
$32.98
Minnesota Twins away
vs New York Yankees · 5:35 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+3.8%
Odds
+139
Book
Stake
$16.33
Tampa Bay Rays away
vs Houston Astros · 11:10 PM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+3.6%
Odds
-108
Book
Stake
$18.91
Boston Red Sox away
vs Los Angeles Angels · 1:38 AM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+3.3%
+2.4% consensus
Odds
+100
Book
Stake
$16.50
St. Louis Cardinals away
vs Chicago Cubs · 12:08 AM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+3.3%
+2.8% consensus
Odds
+136
Book
Stake
$14.17
Arizona Diamondbacks home
vs Milwaukee Brewers · 1:45 AM
Prob
46.7%
Edge
+2.3%
+1.5% consensus
Odds
+125
Book
Stake
$10.15
Los Angeles Angels home
vs Boston Red Sox · 1:38 AM
Prob
44.4%
Edge
+1.9%
Odds
+135
Book
Stake
$8.21
Tampa Bay Rays away
vs Houston Astros · 12:15 AM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+1.4%
Odds
-108
Book
Stake
$7.16
Kansas City Royals home
vs Philadelphia Phillies · 12:10 AM
Prob
44.4%
Edge
+1.0%
+0.1% consensus
Odds
+130
Book
Stake
$4.25
Updated 1:00 AM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice