Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Tue, Apr 21

Season: 97-124 (43.9%) · ROI: -1.3%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
Washington Nationals home
vs Atlanta Braves · 10:45 PM
Prob
62.2%
Edge
+19.5%
Odds
+134
Book
Stake
$85.15
Colorado Rockies home
vs San Diego Padres · 12:40 AM
Prob
62.4%
Edge
+18.9%
+18.1% consensus
Odds
+130
Book
Stake
$83.60
Toronto Blue Jays away
vs Los Angeles Angels · 7:07 PM
Prob
55.8%
Edge
+12.0%
Odds
+128
Book
Stake
$53.22
Los Angeles Dodgers away
vs San Francisco Giants · 1:45 AM
Prob
74.3%
Edge
+10.3%
+9.8% consensus
Odds
-178
Book
Stake
$71.45
Colorado Rockies home
vs San Diego Padres · 12:40 AM
Prob
50.4%
Edge
+9.0%
+7.9% consensus
Odds
+142
Book
Stake
$38.51
Minnesota Twins away
vs New York Mets · 11:10 PM
Prob
51.1%
Edge
+8.4%
Odds
+134
Book
Stake
$36.56
Boston Red Sox home
vs New York Yankees · 10:45 PM
Prob
62.7%
Edge
+8.1%
+7.1% consensus
Odds
-120
Book
Stake
$44.69
New York Mets home
vs Minnesota Twins · 11:10 PM
Prob
67.5%
Edge
+6.8%
+5.7% consensus
Odds
-155
Book
Stake
$43.13
Kansas City Royals home
vs Baltimore Orioles · 11:40 PM
Prob
62.4%
Edge
+6.7%
Odds
-126
Book
Stake
$37.62
Los Angeles Angels home
vs Toronto Blue Jays · 1:38 AM
Prob
59.1%
Edge
+6.7%
+6.0% consensus
Odds
-110
Book
Stake
$35.33
Texas Rangers home
vs Pittsburgh Pirates · 12:05 AM
Prob
58.5%
Edge
+6.6%
Odds
-108
Book
Stake
$34.41
Updated 1:15 AM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice