Walter Bets

MLB Model Picks — Fri, Jul 3

Season: 502-577 (46.5%) · ROI: -3.3%

Prob = model win probability · Edge = prob minus implied odds prob · Stakes based on $1,000 bankroll, ¼ Kelly sizing
Minnesota Twins away
vs New York Yankees · 11:05 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+9.7%
+8.4% consensus
Odds
+178
Book
Stake
$37.75
Miami Marlins away
vs Athletics · 1:40 AM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+7.8%
Odds
+120
Book
Stake
$35.96
Chicago White Sox away
vs Cleveland Guardians · 11:10 PM
Prob
53.3%
Edge
+6.8%
+6.1% consensus
Odds
+115
Book
Stake
$31.73
Cincinnati Reds home
vs Baltimore Orioles · 11:10 PM
Prob
54.4%
Edge
+5.8%
Odds
+106
Book
Stake
$28.26
Milwaukee Brewers away
vs Arizona Diamondbacks · 1:45 AM
Prob
63.8%
Edge
+5.5%
+4.6% consensus
Odds
-140
Book
Stake
$32.98
Boston Red Sox away
vs Los Angeles Angels · 1:38 AM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+4.6%
Odds
-104
Book
Stake
$23.36
Tampa Bay Rays away
vs Houston Astros · 12:15 AM
Prob
55.6%
Edge
+2.7%
Odds
-112
Book
Stake
$14.47
Atlanta Braves home
vs New York Mets · 11:15 PM
Prob
54.4%
Edge
+2.4%
+1.5% consensus
Odds
-108
Book
Stake
$12.67
Pittsburgh Pirates away
vs Washington Nationals · 10:45 PM
Prob
45.6%
Edge
+1.8%
Odds
+128
Book
Stake
$7.93
Updated 7:00 PM UTC · Based on $1,000 bankroll · ¼ Kelly sizing · Not financial advice